Aurora globe
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Chance of aurora0%50%100%
The page updates itself every 5 minutes, no refresh needed. It plays through the last 3 days and the Kp forecast in 15 minute steps; the Live button narrows it to 90 minutes either side of now. NOAA's map covers about the next half hour or so, so frames further ahead, and past times this site hasn't saved, are the latest NOAA map moved to suit the Kp and time, and are marked as estimates. The coloured map is NOAA's OVATION model: the chance of seeing aurora, real for the latest run and for any run this site has saved. At times with no NOAA map it falls back to a smooth estimate from the Kp index, and the badge on the globe says so. The shaded side of the globe is night; the shadow follows the sun as the time moves.